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Bitcoin’s journey started in 2009, with the release of the Bitcoin white paper by creator Satoshi Nakamoto. In its early days, BTC was valued at less than a cent.
The early years of Bitcoin were marked by steady growth and periods of rapid price appreciation, known as ‘bull runs’. One of the greatest bull runs saw the price of BTC reach $69,000 USD ($91,732 CAD) in November, 2021. However, there were also periods of uncertainty, as Sciberras points out.
“During 2014 and 2017 we saw many Bitcoin ‘forks’ proposed that split the Bitcoin community,” he says. Hard forks are changes to the underlying protocol of the blockchain network that splits a cryptocurrency into two.
These forks represented crucial junctures in Bitcoin’s history, with various factions in the community attempting to change BTC’s direction. Despite heated debates, and a number of forks, Bitcoin has persisted in its current format.
“Bitcoin surviving these attempts to change it is a core contributor to where BTC is now, increasing its confidence and resilience,” Sciberras says.
“It has weathered many storms and attempts to change it, with Bitcoin forks now a distant memory, combining for less than 1% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.”
In June of 2023, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed plans to start an exchange-traded fund (ETF) specifically for BTC. Multiple other institutions followed suit, with WisdomTree, ARK Invest and others lodging their first application or updating existing applications shortly after BlackRock’s announcement. In Canada, Purpose Investments has the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which already allows investors’ fortunes to rise and fall with the price of Bitcoin.
These applications were part of greater institutional adoption of Bitcoin throughout the remainder of 2023, driving the price to a high of almost $45,000 USD ($59,820 CAD) in December.
Another defining feature of Bitcoin’s price history is the halving event, which happens roughly every four years, and reduces the rate at which new coins are created.
“We’ve seen Bitcoin’s price significantly increase a year before the halving and a year after,” Sciberras says.
Many investors view the halving event as one of the most significant factors that affects Bitcoin’s price. However, Sciberras is circumspect.
“The jury is still out on how priced-in the halving is, or how important the event is in the grand scheme of Bitcoin’s price trajectory,” he says.
“There is a theory that the four-year halving event is not as significant as many think and that, instead, its alignment with external liquidity cycles is what makes it appear like a trigger for upward price movement.”
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